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We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery.

Productivity growth helps keep inflation at bay and allows real incomes to grow, but it makes businesses even slower to hire than usual. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Productivity growth helps keep inflation at bay and allows real incomes to grow, but it makes businesses even slower to hire than usual.

This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job.

Job

I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system.

The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.

He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature.

I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.

I think you would be hard-pressed to find an economist, aside from the supply-siders, who would argue against the idea that deficits matter. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think you would be hard-pressed to find an economist, aside from the supply-siders, who would argue against the idea that deficits matter.

From the Fed's point of view we've had head-fakes before -- I think they want to see a more stable environment for financial markets before they call it a day. I don't expect that's going to happen overnight. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

From the Fed's point of view we've had head-fakes before -- I think they want to see a more stable environment for financial markets before they call it a day. I don't expect that's going to happen overnight. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away.

I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed.

The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest [since World War II], by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators [for the labor market], usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest [since World War II], by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators [for the labor market], usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise.

The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.

To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.

If you look at the last jobless recovery, the Fed was on hold for a good, long time. When they did reverse course, the economy had produced 4 million jobs from the trough in the labor market. We're nowhere near that -- even with [payroll data] revisions, which I suspect will be on the tepid side, we won't be near that. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

If you look at the last jobless recovery, the Fed was on hold for a good, long time. When they did reverse course, the economy had produced 4 million jobs from the trough in the labor market. We're nowhere near that -- even with [payroll data] revisions, which I suspect will be on the tepid side, we won't be near that.

I don't think they needed an excuse to sit on their hands, and clearly they're going to do that. They may not even move until [their] August [meeting] at the earliest. They have all the flexibility they need, given the weakness of the labor market, and this [productivity report] gives them even more so. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I don't think they needed an excuse to sit on their hands, and clearly they're going to do that. They may not even move until [their] August [meeting] at the earliest. They have all the flexibility they need, given the weakness of the labor market, and this [productivity report] gives them even more so.

Productivity always slows as the economy slows. If labor and wage costs are still on the rise and productivity slows, either corporate profits decline or prices increase. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Productivity always slows as the economy slows. If labor and wage costs are still on the rise and productivity slows, either corporate profits decline or prices increase.

They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.

There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow.

This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.

Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor.

You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.

They've got more room to move, and they will move. That's what they've always done in past recessions and what they'll do again. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

They've got more room to move, and they will move. That's what they've always done in past recessions and what they'll do again.

It's clear the consumer has progressively turned more cautious and conservative. Given that, and given that business capital spending has yet to come back, how long can this recovery keep on going? These numbers certainly make that a legitimate question. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

It's clear the consumer has progressively turned more cautious and conservative. Given that, and given that business capital spending has yet to come back, how long can this recovery keep on going? These numbers certainly make that a legitimate question.

The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.

Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.

It is a genuine shocker... I don't think anyone anticipated a decline of this magnitude. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

It is a genuine shocker... I don't think anyone anticipated a decline of this magnitude.

We're nowhere close to the Japanese example. When you have real deflation as they have in Japan, consumers expect prices to be lower, and they defer purchases, which makes the spiral worse. That's not an apt description of what the American consumer has been doing. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

We're nowhere close to the Japanese example. When you have real deflation as they have in Japan, consumers expect prices to be lower, and they defer purchases, which makes the spiral worse. That's not an apt description of what the American consumer has been doing.

I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.

It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.

We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.

I think the Fed felt this was not the time to be cautious and conservative. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think the Fed felt this was not the time to be cautious and conservative.

I think the Fed felt this was not the time to be cautious and conservative. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think the Fed felt this was not the time to be cautious and conservative.

I think the general message here is that despite the fears about a low savings rate, the consumer continues to hang in there, and that's essentially the only thing that's going to keep the economy on track. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think the general message here is that despite the fears about a low savings rate, the consumer continues to hang in there, and that's essentially the only thing that's going to keep the economy on track.

At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.

Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.

There's no case for no cut at all at this point. There have been better economic numbers, but [policy makers] expect to see that. If I interpret what they've been saying correctly, this economy could grow 4.5 or 5 percent for a year without putting upward pressure on inflation. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

There's no case for no cut at all at this point. There have been better economic numbers, but [policy makers] expect to see that. If I interpret what they've been saying correctly, this economy could grow 4.5 or 5 percent for a year without putting upward pressure on inflation.

We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers.

I don't think anyone has seen this happen so quickly. I don't think Alan Greenspan has seen it happen so quickly. So he's taking out an insurance policy for himself. My best guess is that they (The Fed) are running scared. At this point we've seen such pronounced weakness across all areas of the economy that I think they're fearful this downturn is going to be very different than any in the past. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I don't think anyone has seen this happen so quickly. I don't think Alan Greenspan has seen it happen so quickly. So he's taking out an insurance policy for himself. My best guess is that they (The Fed) are running scared. At this point we've seen such pronounced weakness across all areas of the economy that I think they're fearful this downturn is going to be very different than any in the past.

Economy Insurance

I think if you take those two things together, there is some hope. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I think if you take those two things together, there is some hope.

They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.

Consider how much of a [spending] boom we had in the '90s. The bad news is that it will take a long while to work through that. We're looking at the first quarter of next year before we see convincing evidence [of a recovery]. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Consider how much of a [spending] boom we had in the '90s. The bad news is that it will take a long while to work through that. We're looking at the first quarter of next year before we see convincing evidence [of a recovery].

Boom

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job. Greenspan had been in Washington a long time and had a solid reputation. It was no surprise when Volcker was replaced by Greenspan because he was the obvious choice waiting in the wings. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job. Greenspan had been in Washington a long time and had a solid reputation. It was no surprise when Volcker was replaced by Greenspan because he was the obvious choice waiting in the wings.

Job Long Time Reputation Surprise

Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer.

It came in a little higher than expected, but I take it as more of the same -- consumers are hanging in, but they're not showing robust enthusiasm. - Wayne Ayers Quotes

It came in a little higher than expected, but I take it as more of the same -- consumers are hanging in, but they're not showing robust enthusiasm.

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